Have you heard news about driverless cars?
Yes, you heard me right: driverless cars are coming to town, and investors are pumping in billions of dollars into research and development of these autonomous vehicles.
See some of the news here:
Even in Singapore, NuTonomy to provide self-driving taxi services in Singapore by 2018, expand to 10 cities around the world by 2020
The company has just started trials of its self-driving taxis in Singapore’s 1 North District. It plans to deploy self-driving taxis commercially in Singapore by 2018 and aims to be operational with fleets of self-driving taxis in 10 cities of the world by 2020. (Source: Yahoo News, 2016-08-29, Digital Trends, 2016-05-24)
Delphi and MobilEye to provide off-the-shelf self-driving system by 2019
Both companies have announced that they will bring a fully self-driving (SAE level 4) system on the market for use in a variety of cars in 2019.
Source: TheVerge, 2016-08-23
Ford CEO announces fully autonomous vehicles for mobility services by 2021
Mark Fields, Ford’s CEO announced that the company plans to offer fully self-driving vehicles by 2021. The vehicles, which will come without steering wheel and pedals, will be targeted to fleets which provide autonomous mobility services. Fields expects that it will take several years longer until Ford will sell autonomous vehicles to the public. Source: Reuters, 2016-08-16
Volkswagen expects first self driving cars on the market by 2019
Johann Jungwirth, Volkswagen’s appointed head of Digitalization Strategy, expects the first self-driving cars to appear on the market by 2019. He did not claim that these would be Volkswagen models. Source: Focus, 2016-04-23
GM: Autononomous cars could be deployed by 2020 or sooner
General Motor’s head of foresight and trends Richard Holman said at a confererence in Detroit that most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner.
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2016-05-10
BMW to launch autonomous iNext in 2021
At their annual shareholder meeting, BMW CEO Harald Krueger said that BMW will launch a self-driving electric vehicle, the BMW iNext, in 2021.
Source: Elektrek, 2016-05-12
Ford’s head of product development: autonomous vehicle on the market by 2020
Raj Nair, Ford’s head of product development, expects that autonomous vehicles of SAE level 4 (which means that the car needs no driver but may not be capable of driving everywhere) will hit the market by 2020.(Source: autonews, 2016-02-27)
Baidu’s Chief Scientist expects large number of self-driving cars on the road by 2019
In an interview session, Andrew Ng, the chief scientist of the Chinese search engine Baidu expects that a large number self-driving self-driving cars will be on the road within three years, and that mass-production will be in full swing by 2021. (Source: Quora, 2016-01-29)
First autonomous Toyota to be available in 2020
Toyota is starting to overcome its long-standing reluctance with respect to autonomous driving: It plans to bring the first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020. (Source: Wired.com, 2015-10-08)
Elon Musk now expects first fully autonomous Tesla by 2018, approved by 2021
In an interview by Danish newspaper Borsen, Tesla’s founder Elon Musk accelerates his timeline for the introduction of fully autonomous Teslas by 2 years (!) compared to his estimate less than a year ago (October 2014). He now expects fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter.
(Source: Borsen Interview on youtube, timeline: 8:06-8:29, recorded on 2015-9-23)
Driverless cars will be in use all over the world by 2025
US Secretary of Transportation stated at the 2015 Frankfurt Auto show that he expects driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years.
(Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2015-09-19)
Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030
Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick, has indicated in a tweet that he expects Uber’s fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete. (Source: Mobility Lab, 2015-08-18)
Ford CEO expects fully autonomous cars by 2020
In an interview with Forbes, Mark Fields, CEO of Ford estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years. But he was reluctant to claim that Ford would have an autonomous vehicle on the market by then. (Source: Forbes, 2015-02-09).
It's just a matter of time before it disrupts much of our logistical-related businesses including manpower logistics and product deliveries. That will involve taxi drivers, cabbies, Uber and chauffeurs for the public transportation system, other than the logistical solutions for land and sea eventually later.
This basically means that if you're part of the group of taxi drivers, cabbies, Uber and chauffeurs, your life, career and rice bowl will be directly impacted very soon.
And given that economies of scale may make driverless taxis and related services very affordable, our friends in the human public transportation business will be very affected.
Of course, there will be still the premium luxury-type driving/chauffeuring for the CEOs, COOs (and all the C-level execs), the ultra rich or those who are willing to pay for convenience: these kinds of services will stay. It's the common denominators that will be most affected.
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